# ============================================================================
# VIEW DAY-BY-DAY ALERTS FOR SPECIFIC HARVEST EVENT
# Shows what alerts would trigger each day around harvest
# ============================================================================

library(dplyr)
library(here)

# Load validation results
results_file <- here("r_app/experiments/harvest_prediction/operational_validation_results.rds")
results <- readRDS(results_file)

all_results <- results$all_results

# ============================================================================
# SELECT A HARVEST EVENT TO EXAMINE
# ============================================================================

# Let's look at Field 00110, Harvest Event 2 (2022-01-06)
# This had good Stage 1 prediction

field_to_examine <- "00110"
harvest_event_num <- 2

cat("============================================================================\n")
cat("DAY-BY-DAY ALERT SIMULATION\n")
cat("============================================================================\n\n")

event_data <- all_results %>%
  filter(field == field_to_examine, harvest_event == harvest_event_num) %>%
  arrange(test_date)

if (nrow(event_data) > 0) {
  harvest_date <- unique(event_data$harvest_date)[1]
  
  cat("Field:", field_to_examine, "\n")
  cat("Harvest Event:", harvest_event_num, "\n")
  cat("Actual Harvest Date:", format(harvest_date, "%Y-%m-%d"), "\n\n")
  
  cat("Simulating daily script runs from", format(min(event_data$test_date), "%Y-%m-%d"),
      "to", format(max(event_data$test_date), "%Y-%m-%d"), "\n\n")
  
  cat("============================================================================\n")
  cat("DAILY ALERTS TABLE\n")
  cat("============================================================================\n\n")
  
  cat("Note: Day 0 = actual harvest date\n")
  cat("      Day +1 = first day you'd see harvest in satellite images\n\n")
  
  # Create readable table
  display_table <- event_data %>%
    mutate(
      days_label = case_when(
        days_from_harvest < 0 ~ paste0(days_from_harvest, " days before"),
        days_from_harvest == 0 ~ "HARVEST DAY",
        days_from_harvest > 0 ~ paste0("+", days_from_harvest, " days after")
      ),
      stage1_status = ifelse(stage1_alert, 
                             paste0("✓ ", stage1_level), 
                             "—"),
      stage2_status = ifelse(stage2_alert, 
                             paste0("✓ ", stage2_level), 
                             "—")
    ) %>%
    select(
      Date = test_date,
      `Days from Harvest` = days_label,
      `7d Rolling CI` = rolling_ci,
      `Consecutive Low Days` = consecutive_days,
      `Stage 1 Alert` = stage1_status,
      `CI Drop` = ci_drop,
      `Stage 2 Alert` = stage2_status
    )
  
  print(display_table, n = Inf, row.names = FALSE)
  
  cat("\n============================================================================\n")
  cat("INTERPRETATION\n")
  cat("============================================================================\n\n")
  
  # Find first Stage 1 alert
  first_stage1 <- event_data %>%
    filter(stage1_alert == TRUE) %>%
    slice(1)
  
  if (nrow(first_stage1) > 0) {
    cat("STAGE 1 - First Alert:\n")
    cat("  Date:", format(first_stage1$test_date, "%Y-%m-%d"), "\n")
    cat("  Days before harvest:", abs(first_stage1$days_from_harvest), "\n")
    cat("  Alert level:", first_stage1$stage1_level, "\n")
    cat("  Rolling avg CI:", round(first_stage1$rolling_ci, 2), "\n\n")
  } else {
    cat("STAGE 1: No advance warning detected\n\n")
  }
  
  # Find first Stage 2 alert
  first_stage2 <- event_data %>%
    filter(stage2_alert == TRUE, days_from_harvest >= 0) %>%
    slice(1)
  
  if (nrow(first_stage2) > 0) {
    cat("STAGE 2 - First Detection:\n")
    cat("  Date:", format(first_stage2$test_date, "%Y-%m-%d"), "\n")
    cat("  Days after harvest:", first_stage2$days_from_harvest, "\n")
    cat("  Detection level:", first_stage2$stage2_level, "\n")
    cat("  CI drop:", round(first_stage2$ci_drop, 2), "\n\n")
    
    if (first_stage2$days_from_harvest == 1) {
      cat("  ✓ EXCELLENT: Detected 1 day after (seeing yesterday's images)\n\n")
    } else if (first_stage2$days_from_harvest <= 3) {
      cat("  ✓ GOOD: Detected within 3 days (operational target)\n\n")
    }
  } else {
    cat("STAGE 2: No harvest confirmation detected\n\n")
  }
  
} else {
  cat("No data found for this field/harvest event\n")
}

cat("============================================================================\n\n")

# Now show multiple harvest events for comparison
cat("============================================================================\n")
cat("SUMMARY: ALL HARVEST EVENTS FOR FIELD", field_to_examine, "\n")
cat("============================================================================\n\n")

all_events_summary <- all_results %>%
  filter(field == field_to_examine) %>%
  group_by(harvest_event, harvest_date) %>%
  summarise(
    first_stage1_date = min(test_date[stage1_alert == TRUE], na.rm = TRUE),
    first_stage1_days = min(days_from_harvest[stage1_alert == TRUE], na.rm = TRUE),
    first_stage2_date = min(test_date[stage2_alert == TRUE & days_from_harvest >= 0], na.rm = TRUE),
    first_stage2_days = min(days_from_harvest[stage2_alert == TRUE & days_from_harvest >= 0], na.rm = TRUE),
    .groups = "drop"
  ) %>%
  mutate(
    stage1_result = ifelse(is.finite(first_stage1_days),
                           paste0(abs(first_stage1_days), " days before"),
                           "Not detected"),
    stage2_result = ifelse(is.finite(first_stage2_days),
                           paste0(first_stage2_days, " days after"),
                           "Not detected")
  )

print(all_events_summary, n = Inf)

cat("\n============================================================================\n")
cat("This shows exactly what alerts would fire if you ran the script daily!\n")
cat("============================================================================\n")